Weak Signals?

A weak signal is an early indicator/warning sign of future change. Weak signals represent “primary data” that is also often overshadowed by “noise” (really unimportant or short-lived occurrences) and the preoccupation with day-to-day activities.

Finding weak signals can be difficult and may necessitate special experts like futurists, pioneers, visionaries, lateral thinkers or people rather on the fringes of the established mainstream position and even artists. Since mainstream researchers, the media and the general public rather focus on current and immediate issues that already have visible impact, much of this does not qualify as “weak signal” anymore.

However, in order to be regarded as credible, a weak signal must be an observable phenomena and not the construct of (wishful thinking by) single individuals, although their detection and interpretation may be rooted in subjectivity. Also the detection of weak signals may not be obvious and necessitates special skills and perceptive techniques (e.g. purposefully watching out for slight changes or phenomena that are not “business as usual”. Also different people may interpret weak signals or their “weakness” and probability differently. While some may consider a phenomenon as already quite obvious (or quite probable), others may not even realise it (or consider it the probability very low that it will have sufficient impact). But having discussions and exchanges with a variety of different people can help improving the interpretation and validation of the proposed candidate for a weak signal. Quantitative tools like text-mining are also important to complement subjective information and discoveries with more factual evidence.

In order to become a factor of influence, a “weak signal” must:

• get growing interest/support over time (the weak signal getting stronger)
• gain critical mass – growth of its influence over time indicates a potential for significant/radical impact or change
• be somehow new, even to (most mainstream) experts

Therefore it is important to observe the candidate for a weak signal if it becomes stronger or weaker over time. However some weak signals can take quite a long time to materialize or show visible effects (in some cases more than 10 years…).

Even if a specific weak signal only lasts for a short while, it can nonetheless be part of some other long-lasting broader change (i.e. having another common cause).

But here are also some challenges:

In the beginning many weak signals are so “weak” and strange to the mainstream that they are often being ignored or disregarded as “fringe” until a critical mass has been achieved (e.g. through technological developments, sudden problems, self-fulfilling prophecies). That often happens when the change has already occurred and the signal is actually not (that) “weak” anymore. Therefore some potentially relevant “weak signals” are initially often discussed and circulated outside the mainstream media and information sources. (Futurist) blogs, communities and special conferences could also serve as important supplementary sources for discovering “weak signals”, especially in regard to science and technology as well as upcoming societal issues.

So-called “wild cards” are also often named in relation to “weak signals”. But there is a difference: whereas “Wild Cards” are sudden and surprising big events with low probability but high impact, “weak signals” are subtle, rather small and rather rare. A “wild card” could be compared to an “explosion”, whereas a “weak signal” is rather like a “disguised intruder”.

Source: http://www.metsafoorumi.fi/dokumentit/newsletter3_05.pdf